Camp Nelson, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

134
FXUS66 KHNX 090430
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
930 PM PDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation section updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A warming trend is underway as triple digit heat will be seen
through early next week.

2. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of high temperatures of
at least 103 degrees Today before increasing to 40 to 60 percent
chance during the weekend.

3. Minor fire risk with widespread minimum relative humidity
between 15 and 25 percent for the non-desert areas. Minimum
relative humidity expected to be less than 10 percent in the
Mojave Desert with breezy winds in the afternoon to evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure now becoming the dominate feature over the West
as shown in Thursdays max temperatures. Ensemble upper-air
analysis has the high showing signs of further amplification
today and Saturday as Central California continues its warming
trend. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees
across the San Joaquin Valley now sits in the range of 70% to
90% plus between now and Monday afternoon. At the same time, PoE
of reaching 105 degrees is still struggling to reach the 50%
mark during the next four days with the best chances near
Lemoore and the Interstate-5 corridor from Huron southward. Will
see little change in the pattern until Tuesday. At which time,
a disturbance moving through the Pacific Northwest will
introduce a cooling trend as the region returns to near and
below normal conditions later next week.

Ensemble PoE has been very consistent with the onset of
widespread triple digits across the San Joaquin Valley. Now that
triple digits are upon us, the heat is on until early next
week. Confidence remains high in keeping afternoon max
temperatures in the 99 to 105 range during the period as
probabilities diminish going outside of that range. By next
Wednesday, best probabilities fall in the range between 95 and
100 degrees. Therefore, confidence in a cooling trend next
Wednesday to Friday is growing.

With the high pressure ridge shifting more off-shore during the
weekend and into early next week. The flow aloft remains
unfavorable for any Monsoonal moisture surges into Central
California through early next week. With flow aloft showing a
good westerly component, instability and a lack of moisture will
keep any convection at bay as the area remains dry. Longer range
ensembles show the same dry pattern through at least next
Friday.

&&


.AVIATION...
06Z Update:

VFR conditions are expected in the San Joaquin Valley for the next
24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...Molina/BSO
aviation....JPK/BSO

weather.gov/hanford